Presidential debate: Will Trump and Biden move the markets tonight?

It’s debate night as President Biden and former President Trump — the presumptive nominees of their respective parties ahead of the national conventions — face off tonight. What topics will they address on the debate stage, and which of their policies might trigger moves in the markets (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC)?

Yahoo Finance senior columnist Rick Newman talks about whether this primary debate will be as market-moving as other economic data and what investors and consumers should hear from each candidate.

For more expert insights and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Catalysts.

This post was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.

Check out Yahoo Finance’s latest coverage of the 2024 election cycle and the policies of both candidates:

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Video transcript

Tonight is the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle.

How much can we expect or what can we expect?

And how will each candidate’s policies affect the market and potentially the broader economy?

We have our own Rick Newman here with us.

So Rick, what can we expect tonight?

Well, we will all see who has some stamina and can get to the bottom after 90 minutes.

I mean, that’s definitely I think that’s one thing that everybody’s looking for, but, you know, is that going to affect the markets?

It is possible that there is something that can affect the markets.

Eh, a little for the short term.

The city has some research on this.

They are getting a lot of questions from their customers.

They say, when should we start paying attention to elections?

When will it become a moving thing in the market?

And the answer is probably not.

However, even if this debate turns out to be somewhat interesting, Um, what is more likely to happen is that the markets will begin to pay attention to the intricacies of this debate in the fall of September October.

The story continues

Until then, we have a lot of other things that will move the markets.

We have an entire earnings season to go.

Uh, we got some more readings on inflation.

On employment.

We have a Fed meeting in July and another in September.

So those are the things that the market is going to pay attention to, but I think investors are definitely starting to keep an eye on this and see where this seems to be going?

What about consumers who are simply worried about the state of the economy right now?

What should their debate viewing guide look like to enter tonight?

Eh, that’s such an interesting question because, uh, consumers think the economy is a lot worse than it is.

Well, I think what ordinary people need to hear.

I mean, my expectation is that there will be a lot of debate about who is responsible for the pre-inflation that we had during the Biden administration.

If Trump is debating the way he should be debating, he’s going to blame all of this inflation on Biden and Biden’s policies that aren’t really accurate.

I mean, the supply chain distortions probably accounted for most of the inflation that we saw, so, but I mean. I don’t know that consumers should care so much about what happened in the past.

I mean, if you’re following the election, I think you’re interested in what’s going to happen over the next four years, um, and you need to hear what they’re going to do?

What will they do in the next presidential term?

You know, for what it’s worth, Um, Biden as we know him is kind of he promises more of the same.

Ha ha

He wants to raise corporate taxes, but he couldn’t do it the first time.

So there may not be many new changes.

If Biden gets another term.

Trump has a very different agenda.

It calls for tariffs on all imports, which will raise costs.

So Trump may not, let’s say Trump wins he may not be able to do it.

He may actually choose not to do everything he says he will do during the campaign.

That’s how it went the first time.

But if you raise tariffs, you are raising the cost of imports and that pushes prices up.

And there has already been a fair amount of economic research that says that if the trump tariffs on Chinese imports and all other imports are implemented as expected, it would cost the average family between $1 and $2,000.

So when you hear the tariffs, it might seem like a good idea to protect the American economy.

But tariffs mean higher prices.

And Rick very soon.

I’m curious when this will happen earlier than usual.

Any understanding of why, that is, or perhaps what it signals next for what the coming months will look like.

The Biden administration wanted it to be.

Before, they asked for it to be earlier, I think, because they said that with Biden tied in the polls, with Trump at best and behind by many measures, they could use this as a chance to reset the election.

But the good news is that we won’t have any debate scheduled over the summer.

Go on vacation, go golfing, do whatever you want, go to the pool.

Don’t worry about missing anything we will have.

We have another one scheduled for September and you know, that’s when the voters are traded.

This is when everyone will really pay attention.

So if you can’t watch, shame on you tonight, but you’ll get another chance.